美银美林对客户的调查显示,市场对美元形成强烈的看空共识,认为大流行后的复苏和宽松的宏观政策支撑了风险情绪。

  多数投资者预计,随着明年疫苗的广泛使用,全球经济将逐步复苏,同时货币和财政政策仍将提供支持。

  此外,投资者预计美国将出台更多政策支持,包括更多财政刺激措施、美联储在经济复苏期间继续将利率维持在零水平、并就通胀超调的意愿进行有效沟通。

  与欧盟复苏基金支出缓慢和欧洲央行的限制相比,情况尤其如此。尽管这种政策差异将意味着美国经济复苏更为强劲,但投资者关注的是对风险资产的影响,风险偏好将导致美元进一步走软。

  许多投资者还认为,美元正处于长期下行的结构性趋势。他们对大流行期间美国政府债务不断上升、长期债务状况不断恶化感到担忧。一些投资者预期美联储将长期保持低政策利率,因此实际上认为美国正在实施现代货币理论(MMT)。

  美银美林估计欧元对美元的均衡区间在120-1.25(目前为1.21),对2021年底的预测为1.25。鉴于强劲的势头和单向的资金流动,汇率可能更早地达到这一水平。

  来源:智堡

责任编辑:郭明煜

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